Measuring clutch performance in professional tennis

Authors

  • Stephanie Ann Kovalchik Game Insight Group, Tennis Australia, National Tennis Centre, Melbourne Park
  • Machar Reid Game Insight Group, Tennis Australia, National Tennis Centre, Melbourne Park

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26398/IJAS.0030-011

Keywords:

Discriminant analysis, Elite athletes, Performance evaluation, Sports statistics

Abstract

Not all points in tennis are of equal importance, yet current performance evaluation ignores the variable importance of points in a match. This paper introduces ‘clutch averaging’, a general method for evaluating player performance on important points. Clutch averages are statistical summaries that are weighted by the probabilistic importance of points. Using point-level data of men’s and women’s Grand Slam matches,
we compare the discriminatory ability and predictive accuracy of clutch averaging and simple averages on a set of 11 serve and return performance measures. We find that clutch averages generally improved prediction accuracy and discrimination compared to simple averages. This general and easy-to-use method for accounting for importance in summaries of tennis match performance will be a useful tool for understanding match outcomes and the impact of pressure on performance in elite tennis.

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Published

2020-02-22

How to Cite

Kovalchik, S. A. ., & Reid, M. (2020). Measuring clutch performance in professional tennis. Statistica Applicata - Italian Journal of Applied Statistics, 30(2), 255–268. https://doi.org/10.26398/IJAS.0030-011

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