When is 2 > 3 in basketball?

Abstract

A recent trend in basketball is that teams are taking more shots outside of the three-point line and fewer shots inside. This is an advantage since the expected number of points scored, in general, is slightly higher for three-point shots. Through simulations, this paper shows that there are game situations where a strategy of taking fewer three-point attempts at the expense of more two-point attempts will improve the probability of winning the game.